Large numbers of noncitizens vote illegally in US elections and decide the outcomes
By Colin PetersonJuly 17, 2026
Where the evidence lands: Contradicted
That large numbers of noncitizens, particularly undocumented immigrants, are illegally registered and voting in US federal elections, in numbers sufficient to change the outcomes of national races.
Contradicted. The rated claim is that noncitizens vote in federal US elections in numbers large enough to swing results. On the evidence, that is debunked. Voting in a federal election as a noncitizen is a serious federal crime that can bring prison and deportation, and every large audit that has looked has found the practice vanishingly rare: a 2017 study of 23.5 million votes found 30 suspected cases, about 0.0001%; Georgia's 2022 roll audit found no noncitizen had cast a ballot; Utah's review of more than two million voters found one noncitizen registration and zero noncitizen votes. Two real things get folded into the false claim and are worth separating. First, isolated noncitizen registrations and votes do occur, and are caught and prosecuted, so the number is not literally zero. Second, a handful of towns and the District of Columbia legally allow noncitizens to vote in local elections only, which is a lawful, local matter often misrepresented as federal fraud. The narrow, true facts do not add up to the large claim, which no audit supports.
Believed by: A large share of the electorate concerned about immigration and election integrity, amplified by senior officials and by the 2026 push for the SAVE Act. Polls have found many Americans believe noncitizen voting is widespread, well above any figure the audits support.
Where the entry below concerns a real dataset being overread, this one concerns an admission that was never made. Snopes rated Incorrect Attribution on 22 August a quotation circulating as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez saying that Republicans are trying to rig elections by only allowing US citizens to vote. She did not say it. Searches for her name against the wording return no news report, video or release, and a remark of that kind by a prominent legislator would not go unreported. Two features are worth recording. The quote has run for roughly five months across four platforms, on X and TikTok in April, Threads in June, and Facebook in July and August, and Snopes notes that readers repeatedly searched its site and wrote in asking whether it was real. That is a long life for something with a five-minute check behind it. And the reason it survives is structural: the quotation arrives with no date, no venue and no occasion attached, so there is nothing specific for a reader to look up and the absence of context reads as unfalsifiable rather than as the tell it actually is. Note what the fabrication supplies that the evidence does not. Everything else in this file turns on disputed counts and audits. An invented admission skips that argument entirely by having the other side concede the point, which is a cheaper route to the same conclusion and needs no data at all. source →
The claim has a federal dataset behind it for the first time, and the gap between the dataset and the claim is the whole story. On 18 August 2026 President Trump posted on Truth Social that a Census Bureau check of 2020 voter records against citizenship records had, on the first 128 million voters, proved that over 24,000 noncitizens voted illegally, with 32 million more voters still to analyse. Lead Stories rated that Overstated on 19 August. What the Bureau reported is narrower: more than 24,000 of the records it could analyse were matched to government records indicating with high confidence that the person was not a citizen at the time, and the Bureau itself called the work a beginning analysis rather than a finding. The method is where it turns. A commercial voter list was compared against federal immigration and visa databases; where a Social Security number could not be matched, name, date of birth and address were used instead. Anyone appearing in an immigration record for whom no proof of later naturalisation was found was counted. So the count rests on missing paperwork, and not finding evidence that someone naturalised is not the same as finding evidence that they did not. David Becker of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research told Lead Stories that census data carries no unique identifier that can be matched to public voter records and that any such attempt would generate large numbers of false matches. Two further limits sit on the record regardless of how the matching is judged. The figure is about 0.015 per cent of roughly 160 million ballots cast, smaller than the margin of victory in every state. And the data records citizenship status, not choices: it does not show who any flagged voter supported, which is fatal to reading it as evidence about who won. source →
One real registration failure sits inside that story, and it should be kept apart from the claim built on top of it. New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill announced in late July 2026 that a software error had inadvertently registered roughly 6,600 noncitizens between 2023 and 2024; the state is removing them and has dropped the vendor. That is a genuine problem, and it is also about a fifth of the 35,000 DHS attributed to New Jersey, and those registrations produced fewer than 400 ballots statewide. The distance between flagged records and cast ballots is what audits keep measuring: a Center for Election Innovation and Research review found Iowa's audit starting at 2,176 suspect records, falling to 277 on inspection, and ending with 35 people who actually voted in 2024, while Georgia's review of 8.2 million records turned up 20 noncitizens. Registration errors are documented and fixable. Decisive noncitizen voting is still not in evidence, and the verdict is unchanged. source →
The claim got its biggest official push yet in July 2026, and it did not survive scrutiny. In a 16 July speech President Trump said there might be as many as 250,000 noncitizens registered to vote across California, Nevada, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, using the figure to argue for the SAVE America Act. Snopes rated it False on 28 July. Asked for its methodology, DHS sent back only the news release the question was about, and no outside party has been able to reproduce the number. All four states disputed it: California's secretary of state called the allegation "fallacious" and "unsubstantiated" and published the letter DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin had sent, along with the state's reply that the department had supplied too little detail to act on; Nevada called it "wildly speculative" and told the New York Times that only 138 of its 2.1 million active voters had registered without a driver's license or Social Security number for database checking; Pennsylvania's Republican secretary of state, Al Schmidt, said his state's rolls are properly maintained and asked DHS for names and methods so his staff could review them. source →
The full story
Start with what the law already is
It is already a serious federal crime for a noncitizen to vote in a federal election. It has been since 1996, and it carries fines, prison, and deportation. Registering requires swearing to citizenship under penalty of perjury. So the claim is not that a loophole makes noncitizen voting legal; it is that noncitizens are breaking this law in enormous numbers and getting away with it. That is a factual claim about how many, and it can be checked.
When you check it, you have to be honest in both directions: the number is not literally zero, and it is nowhere near large enough to do what the claim says. Both halves of that sentence matter.
The strongest version of the worry
The concern is not built on nothing. There is a real population of noncitizens in the country, registration systems rely heavily on self-attestation rather than up-front proof, and voter rolls are known to contain errors, including, occasionally, noncitizens who registered. A credentialed academic study in 2014 put a specific and alarming percentage on noncitizen voting, and audits do sometimes turn up noncitizen registrations. If you start from those facts, worrying that the true number could be large is not irrational.
And there really are places where noncitizens cast ballots, a point often raised as a gotcha. That is true. It deserves a straight answer rather than a denial, which is what the next sections give.
What the audits actually find
The claim's weakness is that it has been tested, directly, many times, by the people with the rolls in front of them. A 2017 study examined 23.5 million votes across dozens of jurisdictions and found about 30 suspected noncitizen cases, on the order of 0.0001%. When Georgia audited its rolls in 2022, it could not identify a single noncitizen who had cast a ballot. Utah reviewed more than two million registered voters and found one noncitizen registration and zero noncitizen votes.
Across millions of ballots specifically audited for it, confirmed noncitizen votes come back in the single or low double digits. That cannot decide a national election.
The famous 2014 study that pointed the other way did not survive scrutiny. Other researchers showed that if even a tiny fraction of the survey's respondents were misclassified, citizens wrongly recorded as noncitizens, that alone could manufacture the whole result, and analyses using verified records did not reproduce it. One contested survey estimate does not outweigh a stack of direct roll audits that keep finding almost nothing.
The local-voting confusion
Here is the plain answer to the gotcha. A small number of places, including the District of Columbia and a few towns in Maryland and Vermont, have passed laws letting noncitizen residents vote in local elections, for offices like school board, city council, or mayor. This is real, and it is legal. It is also strictly limited: those voters use separate ballots and cannot vote for president, Congress, or any federal office.
That lawful local policy is routinely repackaged as proof that noncitizens are voting in national elections. They are two different things. One can support or oppose local noncitizen voting on its own merits, it is a genuine debate, without it saying anything at all about federal elections, where noncitizen voting remains illegal and, by every audit, extraordinarily rare.
A tiny problem, a large remedy
The version put to the test here, noncitizens voting in federal elections in numbers that decide them, is debunked. Not because the number is zero, it is not, and this file does not pretend otherwise, but because every large audit converts the raw worry into a handful of cases out of millions, far too few to matter to a national result, and because the one study that said otherwise did not hold up.
That is also the backdrop for the SAVE Act and its state versions, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register. Supporters present it as closing the door on noncitizen voting; the difficulty is that the door is already nearly shut, while the Brennan Center estimates more than 21 million eligible citizens lack ready access to the documents the law would demand, with particular burdens on married women whose names have changed and on Americans abroad. Whether that tradeoff is worth it is a legitimate policy argument. What the evidence settles is the narrower factual question this file rates: the mass noncitizen voting the claim describes is not happening.
What's still unexplained
- Whether noncitizens should be allowed to vote in local elections is a genuine, live policy debate. Several places permit it and others have moved to ban it; that argument is real and legitimate, and it is entirely separate from the false claim that noncitizens vote in federal elections in decisive numbers.
- Voter rolls do contain errors, including occasional noncitizen registrations that surface in audits, so 'the rolls are perfect' is not the claim here. The point is that audits convert those registrations into almost no actual votes.
- Proof-of-citizenship laws like the SAVE Act raise a real tradeoff: they target an extremely rare problem while, by the Brennan Center's estimate, more than 21 million eligible citizens lack ready access to citizenship documents. How to weigh a tiny risk against a large access burden is a legitimate policy question the evidence informs but does not settle.
Point by point
The claim: Noncitizens are voting in numbers large enough to decide federal elections.
What the record shows: Every large audit finds the opposite. A 2017 study of 23.5 million votes identified 30 suspected noncitizen cases (0.0001%). Georgia's 2022 audit found no noncitizen ballots; Utah's review of over two million voters found zero noncitizen votes. Numbers in the single or low double digits, out of millions, cannot move a race decided by thousands or more.
The claim: A famous study proved millions of noncitizens vote.
What the record shows: The 2014 estimate that a notable share of noncitizens vote was challenged almost immediately by other researchers, who showed that a small rate of survey respondents mistakenly classified as noncitizens, when they are actually citizens, can generate the entire effect. Later analyses using verified records did not reproduce it. It is a contested outlier, not a confirmed finding, and the audits that check actual voter rolls do not support it.
The claim: The fact that some places let noncitizens vote proves the fraud is real.
What the record shows: This conflates two different things. A few localities, including the District of Columbia and some Maryland and Vermont towns, have lawfully chosen to let noncitizen residents vote in local elections only, for offices like school board or city council. That is legal, transparent, and limited to local races; it is not noncitizens voting in federal elections, and it is not fraud. Presenting a lawful local policy as evidence of national election-rigging misstates what is happening.
The claim: Noncitizen voting must be common because it is easy and rarely checked.
What the record shows: The incentives run hard the other way. For a noncitizen, especially someone seeking legal status, voting illegally risks felony prosecution and deportation in exchange for a single ballot that cannot decide an election. Registration requires a sworn citizenship attestation, rolls are cross-checked against government databases, and the audits that specifically hunt for noncitizen voting keep finding almost none. Rare, prosecuted cases exist; a hidden mass of them does not.
Timeline
- 1996Federal law makes it a crime for a noncitizen to vote in a federal election, carrying fines, imprisonment, and possible deportation. Registration forms require attestation of citizenship under penalty of perjury.
- 2014A widely publicized academic study estimates that a meaningful percentage of noncitizens vote. Other scholars quickly challenge it on methodological grounds, arguing that measurement error in the underlying survey can produce the result from respondents who are in fact citizens. The estimate becomes a lasting talking point despite the rebuttals.
- 2016-2020The claim that noncitizens vote in large numbers becomes a recurring feature of national politics. A 2017 review of 23.5 million votes across dozens of jurisdictions finds about 30 suspected noncitizen votes, roughly 0.0001%.
- 2022-2024State audits report the same picture. Georgia's 2022 citizenship review finds no noncitizen had voted; a later audit of millions of records finds a small number of registrations and a handful of past votes. Utah's review of more than two million voters finds one noncitizen registration and zero votes.
- 2025-2026The claim anchors the SAVE Act, a federal bill requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register. It passes the House and is debated in the Senate, where critics note that over 21 million Americans lack ready access to citizenship documents and that the underlying problem it targets is, by every audit, tiny.
From the case file
The actual records: declassified, released, or leaked. We link straight to each document in its official archive, so you never have to take our word for it. Read the originals yourself.
H.R.22, the SAVE Act, full bill text
The text of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. It is the primary document behind the current debate: reading it shows exactly what proof it would demand and how, which is what the access-burden estimates are measured against.
Read the document: Congress.gov →Q&A on the SAVE America Act
A nonpartisan walkthrough of what the SAVE Act does and does not do, the evidence on noncitizen voting it responds to, and the disputes over its effects, including the estimate that millions of eligible citizens lack ready documentary proof of citizenship.
Read the document: FactCheck.org →Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections
A reference explainer assembling the law and the data on noncitizen voting: that it is a federal crime, that audits find it vanishingly rare, and that a small number of localities permit noncitizen voting in local elections only. It is the single best orientation to the facts this file rates.
Read the document: Migration Policy Institute →Other case files that cite the same sources
Contradicted. The rated claim is that noncitizens vote in federal US elections in numbers large enough to swing results. On the evidence, that is debunked. Voting in a federal election as a noncitizen is a serious federal crime that can bring prison and deportation, and every large audit that has looked has found the practice vanishingly rare: a 2017 study of 23.5 million votes found 30 suspected cases, about 0.0001%; Georgia's 2022 roll audit found no noncitizen had cast a ballot; Utah's review of more than two million voters found one noncitizen registration and zero noncitizen votes. Two real things get folded into the false claim and are worth separating. First, isolated noncitizen registrations and votes do occur, and are caught and prosecuted, so the number is not literally zero. Second, a handful of towns and the District of Columbia legally allow noncitizens to vote in local elections only, which is a lawful, local matter often misrepresented as federal fraud. The narrow, true facts do not add up to the large claim, which no audit supports.
Reviewed by Colin Peterson · Last reviewed August 23, 2026 · How we rate
Common questions
Is Noncitizen voting true?
Contradicted. The rated claim is that noncitizens vote in federal US elections in numbers large enough to swing results. On the evidence, that is debunked. Voting in a federal election as a noncitizen is a serious federal crime that can bring prison and deportation, and every large audit that has looked has found the practice vanishingly rare: a 2017 study of 23.5 million votes found 30 suspected cases, about 0.0001%; Georgia's 2022 roll audit found no noncitizen had cast a ballot; Utah's review of more than two million voters found one noncitizen registration and zero noncitizen votes. Two real things get folded into the false claim and are worth separating. First, isolated noncitizen registrations and votes do occur, and are caught and prosecuted, so the number is not literally zero. Second, a handful of towns and the District of Columbia legally allow noncitizens to vote in local elections only, which is a lawful, local matter often misrepresented as federal fraud. The narrow, true facts do not add up to the large claim, which no audit supports.
What is Noncitizen voting?
The claim is that noncitizens, especially undocumented immigrants, are voting in US federal elections in large numbers and tipping the results, and that only proof-of-citizenship rules can stop it. This case file separates the narrow truths from the large claim. Noncitizen voting in federal elections is illegal and does happen in isolate…
What does the evidence show?
Every large audit finds the opposite. A 2017 study of 23.5 million votes identified 30 suspected noncitizen cases (0.0001%). Georgia's 2022 audit found no noncitizen ballots; Utah's review of over two million voters found zero noncitizen votes. Numbers in the single or low double digits, out of millions, cannot move a race decided by tho…
Why do people believe it?
Immigration is a genuinely large and visible issue, and it is intuitive to assume that a large population of noncitizens must translate into a large number of illegal votes, even though the audits show the link does not hold.
What is still unresolved?
Whether noncitizens should be allowed to vote in local elections is a genuine, live policy debate. Several places permit it and others have moved to ban it; that argument is real and legitimate, and it is entirely separate from the false claim that noncitizens vote in federal elections in decisive numbers.
Sources
- 1.Election fact check: Noncitizens can't vote, and instances are 'vanishingly rare', ABC News (2024)
- 2.6 facts about false noncitizen voting claims and the election, NPR (2024)
- 3.Noncitizen Voting in U.S. Elections, Migration Policy Institute (2024)
- 4.Four Things to Know about Noncitizen Voting, Bipartisan Policy Center (2024)
- 5.Q&A on the SAVE America Act, FactCheck.org (2026)
- 6.DHS claimed 250K noncitizens are registered to vote across 4 states. Here's the truth, Snopes (2026)
- 7.The Damage from Conspiracy Theories About Noncitizen Voting, Brennan Center for Justice (2024)
Embed this verdict on your site
Paste this snippet to show our sourced verdict as a small card, with a link back to the full case file. Free to use.
<iframe src="https://theconspiratory.com/embed/noncitizen-voting" title="The Conspiratory verdict" width="520" height="190" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy"></iframe>Help us investigate
This is a living case file. If you spot an error or know evidence we missed, tell us, and weigh in on where you land.
Where do you land?
Cast your read on this one.
Comments
Add your take. Comments are read and approved by a human before they appear, so keep it on topic and civil. Please do not accuse named, living people of crimes.