The Conspiratory
Case File No. 1361-F● Declassified · Confirmed

Global banks rigged LIBOR, the benchmark interest rate behind hundreds of trillions in loans and derivatives

Where the evidence lands: Supported
That the London Interbank Offered Rate, presented to the world as an objective measure of bank borrowing costs and used to price hundreds of trillions of dollars in financial contracts, was routinely and deliberately falsified by the very banks that set it. In its documented form the claim is specific: submitters at panel banks entered figures they knew did not reflect genuine market conditions, at the request of the banks' own derivatives traders seeking to move the rate in a profitable direction, and, separately, at times to disguise how expensive it had become for the bank to borrow during the crisis. The claim is sometimes stretched into a vaguer sense that 'the whole system is fixed'; the proven core is narrower and better documented than that: a specific benchmark, specific banks, specific admissions.
First circulated
Doubts about the honesty of banks' LIBOR submissions surfaced publicly in April 2008, when a Wall Street Journal analysis questioned whether banks were understating their borrowing costs; the documented case broke open on 27 June 2012 with Barclays' roughly $450 million settlement
Era
2000s–2010s
Sources
10

Believed by: This is the mainstream, evidenced account, accepted by financial regulators on both sides of the Atlantic, by criminal courts, and by the banks themselves in signed settlements; what remains argued is individual culpability and how far up the chain the knowledge ran, not whether the rate was manipulated

The full story

The number that priced the world

For most of its life, LIBOR was invisible to the people it touched. It sat inside the fine print of an adjustable mortgage, a corporate loan, a student debt, a currency swap, never announced, rarely explained, but quietly setting the price. The London Interbank Offered Rate was meant to answer a simple question: what does it cost a big bank to borrow money from another big bank right now? Multiply that across every contract pegged to the answer and you arrive at the figure that made LIBOR matter: an estimated $300 trillion or more in loans and derivatives keyed to a single daily benchmark.

The way that number was produced is the whole story. LIBOR was not measured from actual trades. Each business day, a panel of large banks simply reported the rate at which each believed it could borrow. The highest and lowest submissions were trimmed away and the rest averaged. The system had an obvious and, in hindsight, fatal feature: the banks whose money rode on where LIBOR fixed were the same banks entrusted to report it honestly, on what amounted to an honor system, with no requirement that the figure match any real transaction.

A number that priced hundreds of trillions of dollars was not measured. It was reported, by the parties with the most to gain from shading it.

Two ways to bend a benchmark

There were really two schemes, with different motives, running through the same mechanism. The first was about profit. A bank's interest-rate derivatives, contracts whose value swings with where LIBOR lands, could be worth a great deal more or less depending on the day's fix. Traders realized that the colleague down the hall who entered the bank's LIBOR submission could nudge the figure a fraction in a helpful direction, and that a fraction, across a large enough book, was real money. So they asked. The requests, preserved in internal messages later published by regulators, were often casual and grateful, one trader offering a submitter a bottle of champagne for a rate moved his way.

The second scheme surfaced during the financial crisis, and its motive was fear rather than greed. In 2007 and 2008, a bank that submitted a high borrowing rate was effectively confessing that other banks saw it as risky and were charging it more, exactly the signal a wobbling institution could not afford to send. So panel banks, Barclays among them, understated their submissions to look healthier than they were. This was not a few traders skimming a derivatives book; it was closer to institutional self-preservation during a panic, which is why it later raised uncomfortable questions about what supervisors and central bankers understood at the time.

Both schemes exploited the same design flaw. Because the number was an opinion rather than a measurement, a dishonest opinion was almost impossible to falsify from the outside. It took subpoenaed emails and chat transcripts, not market data, to prove what had happened.

Barclays breaks it open, and the fines cascade

The dam broke on 27 June 2012. Barclays became the first bank to settle, agreeing to pay roughly $450 million across the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. Department of Justice and Britain's Financial Services Authority. The CFTC's order was blunt: Barclays had attempted to manipulate and made false reports concerning LIBOR and Euribor “on numerous occasions and sometimes on a daily basis” over roughly six years, to benefit its derivatives positions. Within days, the political and reputational shock forced out chief executive Bob Diamond.

What made the Barclays settlement decisive was that it was first, not that it was largest. Once the conduct and the evidence were public, the other panel banks followed. UBS settled for around $1.5 billion in December 2012, Royal Bank of Scotland for about $612 million in early 2013, Rabobank for roughly $1 billion later that year, and Deutsche Bank for about $2.5 billion in 2015, at the time the largest penalty in CFTC history. Added up across regulators on both sides of the Atlantic, the fines exceeded $9 billion.

The institutional response went beyond fines. The government-commissioned Wheatley Review, published in September 2012, recommended taking LIBOR away from the British Bankers' Association, tying submissions to real transactions wherever possible, and criminalizing benchmark manipulation. Those reforms were largely adopted, and the benchmark itself was ultimately retired: LIBOR was phased out between 2021 and 2023, replaced by transaction-based rates such as SONIA and SOFR that are far harder to simply type in.

The banks did not merely pay to settle allegations. They admitted the conduct, and the benchmark they had corrupted was eventually abolished.

The men in the dock, and the convictions that unravelled

Corporate penalties are one thing; putting individuals in prison is another, and this is where the story turns genuinely complicated. The most prominent defendant was Tom Hayes, a former UBS and Citigroup trader who in August 2015 became the first person jailed anywhere for rigging LIBOR. He was convicted on eight counts of conspiracy to defraud and sentenced to 14 years, reduced to 11 on appeal, and served about five and a half years before his release in 2021. Other traders were convicted in later trials, including former Barclays trader Carlo Palombo on the euro benchmark, Euribor.

Then, on 23 July 2025, the UK Supreme Court unanimously quashed the convictions of Hayes and Palombo. It is important to be precise about what the court did and did not say, because the ruling is easy to misread. The justices found that the trial judges had misdirected the juries: they had treated the question of whether a submission reflected the submitter's genuine opinion of borrowing costs as a matter of law for the judge, when it was in truth a factual question that should have been left to the jury. That misdirection, the court held, undermined the fairness of the trials. The Serious Fraud Office decided against seeking retrials.

What the Supreme Court did not do was rule that LIBOR had been honestly set, or disturb a single one of the banks' corporate admissions. This is the nuance the verdict turns on. It is entirely coherent, and correct on the record, to hold both that the benchmark was manipulated, which the banks themselves conceded and paid billions to settle, and that specific criminal prosecutions of individual traders were legally flawed in how they were run. Those are answers to two different questions. The first is about whether the rate was rigged; the record says plainly that it was. The second is about whether a particular defendant received a fair trial for it; on that, the highest court in the UK said no.

Overturning a conviction on how a jury was directed is not the same as finding the rate was never rigged. The banks' admissions still stand.

Why people believe

Where the evidence lands

LIBOR occupies a peculiar place in the catalog of conspiracy claims, because it is one of the very few where the sweeping accusation, that a central mechanism of the financial system was secretly fixed by the powerful for their own benefit, turned out to be substantially true and was proven not by leaks or whistleblowers alone but by the institutions' own signed admissions and by the regulators charged with policing them. The usual pattern is a dramatic claim that the evidence cannot bear. Here the evidence bears it.

The honest verdict keeps two things in view at once. The manipulation is settled: multiple major banks admitted submitting false figures to a benchmark that priced hundreds of trillions of dollars in contracts, and they paid more than $9 billion for it. And the question of individual criminal guilt is genuinely unsettled, with several convictions quashed on legal grounds that say nothing about whether the rate was clean. Reading the 2025 rulings as an exoneration of the scheme itself inverts what the courts actually found.

What remains open is not whether LIBOR was rigged but its edges: how much regulators and central bankers knew about the crisis-era lowballing, what the manipulation actually cost the borrowers and funds on the other side, and who, if anyone, will ultimately be held personally accountable. The core, though, is as solid as findings in this field ever get. For once, the market really was rigged, and there are orders, admissions and fines to prove it.

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Open questions

What's still unexplained

  • How much did central banks and regulators know about the crisis-era lowballing, and did any of them tacitly tolerate it? Questions have long circled around 2008 contacts between Barclays and the Bank of England about whether the bank's submissions were too high. Whether officials understood lowballing to be occurring, and how they regarded it at the time, has never been fully resolved.
  • With several individual convictions now quashed, it is unsettled who, if anyone, bears personal criminal responsibility for a manipulation the banks themselves admitted. The 2025 Supreme Court ruling reframed the traders' cases as flawed prosecutions without endorsing the idea that the underlying conduct was proper, leaving an accountability gap between the corporate findings and the individuals.
  • The true economic cost is still not precisely known. Because LIBOR moved in tiny increments across an enormous notional base, and because manipulation pushed in different directions at different times, translating the proven rigging into concrete losses for specific borrowers, pension funds or municipalities remains an unresolved and heavily litigated question.
  • It is not fully established how the two schemes, trader-driven manipulation for profit and institution-driven lowballing for reputation, overlapped or reinforced each other, nor exactly how early the first began. Regulators dated documented conduct to around 2005, but how long informal 'help' between traders and submitters had been routine before anyone was watching is not settled.

Point by point

The claim: Banks deliberately submitted false LIBOR figures rather than honest estimates of their borrowing costs.

What the record shows: This is proven in the regulators' own orders and in the banks' signed admissions. The CFTC found that Barclays 'attempted to manipulate and made false reports concerning' LIBOR and Euribor over roughly six years, and Barclays admitted the conduct to the Department of Justice. UBS, RBS, Rabobank and Deutsche Bank entered comparable settlements. The evidence base includes internal chat logs in which traders thanked submitters in language that became notorious, for example promising bottles of champagne for a rate moved their way. This is court and regulatory record, not inference.

The claim: The manipulation was done to make the banks' own trading positions more profitable.

What the record shows: Confirmed as one of the two documented motives. Interest-rate derivatives are worth more or less depending on where LIBOR fixes, so a submitter shading the bank's figure by a fraction could move the value of positions worth enormous sums. The CFTC's Barclays order states plainly that submitters altered figures 'to benefit the Bank's derivatives trading positions by either increasing its profits or minimizing its losses,' sometimes on daily request from the traders who stood to gain.

The claim: Banks also lowered their submissions during the crisis to appear financially healthier.

What the record shows: Confirmed as the second, distinct scheme, and in some ways the more troubling one. During 2007 to 2009, a high LIBOR submission would have signaled to markets that a bank was seen as risky and struggling to borrow. Regulators found that panel banks, Barclays among them, deliberately understated their costs to avoid that stigma. This strand was less about trader profit than about institutional self-preservation during a panic, which is why it later drew questions about what central banks and regulators knew at the time.

The claim: This was the work of a few rogue traders acting alone, not the institutions.

What the record shows: The record does not support the 'rogue trader' framing at the institutional level. The settlements were with the banks themselves, which admitted the conduct and paid corporate penalties precisely because the behavior was widespread across desks and, in the lowballing scheme, effectively a matter of firm posture rather than individual greed. Individual criminal responsibility is a separate and genuinely contested question: some traders were convicted, and several of those convictions were later quashed, but the corporate findings of manipulation were never disturbed.

The claim: Because some traders' convictions were overturned in 2025, the rigging must not have happened.

What the record shows: This is the most common misreading of the 2025 ruling, and it is wrong. The UK Supreme Court quashed the convictions of Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo on the ground that the trial judges had wrongly treated a factual question, whether a submission was a genuine opinion, as a matter of law and effectively decided it for the jury. That is a ruling about the fairness of a criminal trial and the boundary between judge and jury. It leaves entirely intact the banks' own admissions and the regulators' findings that LIBOR was manipulated. Nobody has retracted the settlements or the $9 billion in fines.

The claim: It was a technical fiddle that harmed no one in the real world.

What the record shows: The harm is harder to quantify than the manipulation itself, but the exposure was vast. LIBOR was embedded in an estimated $300 trillion or more of contracts worldwide, from adjustable-rate mortgages and student loans to the swaps used by companies and local governments. Regulators concluded that the manipulation undermined the integrity of a global benchmark that millions of borrowers and investors relied on, and numerous civil suits followed. The exact dollar cost to any given borrower is genuinely difficult to pin down, but the idea that a rigged benchmark on that scale was harmless does not survive contact with the record.

Timeline

  1. 1986The British Bankers' Association formally launches LIBOR as a standardized daily benchmark. Each business day a panel of large banks reports the interest rate at which it believes it could borrow from other banks; the outliers are trimmed and the rest averaged. Because the figure is an estimate rather than a record of actual trades, its integrity rests entirely on banks reporting honestly.
  2. 2005According to later regulatory findings, this is roughly when the documented manipulation begins. Traders at Barclays and other panel banks start asking their in-house rate submitters to move LIBOR and its euro cousin Euribor up or down to benefit the banks' interest-rate derivatives positions, sometimes by tiny fractions, sometimes daily.
  3. 2007-08 to 2009As the financial crisis intensifies, a second scheme runs in parallel. Banks submit artificially low borrowing estimates so they will not appear stressed to markets and counterparties; a higher submission would have signaled that lenders considered the bank a risk. In April 2008 a Wall Street Journal analysis publicly questions whether panel banks are understating their costs.
  4. 2012-06-27Barclays becomes the first bank to settle, agreeing to pay roughly $450 million to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. Department of Justice and Britain's Financial Services Authority. The CFTC order describes attempted manipulation and false reporting 'on numerous occasions and sometimes on a daily basis' over about six years. Chief executive Bob Diamond resigns within days.
  5. 2012-09The Wheatley Review, commissioned by the UK government, publishes its final report. It recommends stripping the British Bankers' Association of its administrator role, anchoring submissions to actual transactions where possible, and creating new criminal sanctions for manipulating benchmarks. The reforms are largely adopted.
  6. 2012 to 2015The penalties cascade across the industry. UBS settles for around $1.5 billion in December 2012, Royal Bank of Scotland for about $612 million in February 2013, Rabobank for roughly $1 billion in October 2013, and Deutsche Bank for about $2.5 billion in April 2015, then the largest such penalty in CFTC history. Combined fines from regulators worldwide exceed $9 billion.
  7. 2015-08-03Former UBS and Citigroup trader Tom Hayes is convicted in London on eight counts of conspiracy to defraud and sentenced to 14 years, later reduced to 11 on appeal. He becomes the first person jailed anywhere for LIBOR rigging and serves about five and a half years before release in 2021. Other traders, including Barclays' Carlo Palombo on Euribor, are convicted in subsequent trials.
  8. 2021 to 2023LIBOR is retired. Following the FCA's March 2021 announcement, sterling, euro, Swiss franc and yen panels plus some U.S. dollar tenors cease at the end of 2021, and the last remaining U.S. dollar LIBOR panel ceases on 30 June 2023. The benchmark is replaced by rates such as SONIA and SOFR that are built on actual transactions rather than banks' self-reported estimates.
  9. 2025-07-23The UK Supreme Court unanimously quashes the convictions of Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo, ruling that jury misdirection at their trials had undermined the fairness of the proceedings. The court does not find that the rate was honestly set; it finds that whether a submission reflected a submitter's genuine opinion was a factual question wrongly taken from the jury. The Serious Fraud Office declines to seek retrials.
Where the evidence lands

Supported. This is the rare 'the market is rigged' claim proven true in regulators' own orders. Between roughly 2005 and 2011, traders and rate submitters at Barclays, UBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank, Rabobank and other major banks colluded to submit false estimates for LIBOR, the benchmark then underpinning an estimated $300 trillion or more in loans and derivatives, both to enrich their own trading books and, during the 2008 crisis, to make their banks look healthier than they were. The banks admitted misconduct; global fines topped $9 billion. One important nuance sits inside the verdict without softening it: some individual criminal convictions, including that of trader Tom Hayes, were later quashed by the UK Supreme Court in 2025 on a point of law about how juries were directed, not on any finding that the rate was left untouched.

Reviewed by The Conspiratory Editors · Last reviewed July 18, 2026 · How we rate

Sources

  1. 1.CFTC Orders Barclays to pay $200 Million Penalty for Attempted Manipulation of and False Reporting concerning LIBOR and Euribor Benchmark Interest Rates, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (2012)
  2. 2.Barclays Bank PLC Admits Misconduct Related to Submissions for the London Interbank Offered Rate and the Euro Interbank Offered Rate and Agrees to Pay $160 Million Penalty, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Public Affairs (2012)
  3. 3.CFTC Orders UBS to Pay $700 Million Penalty to Settle Charges of Manipulation, Attempted Manipulation and False Reporting of LIBOR and Other Benchmark Interest Rates, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (2012)
  4. 4.Deutsche Bank to Pay $800 Million Penalty to Settle CFTC Charges of Manipulation, Attempted Manipulation, and False Reporting of LIBOR and Euribor, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (2015)
  5. 5.The Wheatley Review of LIBOR: Final Report, HM Treasury (Martin Wheatley) (2012)
  6. 6.Understanding the Libor Scandal, Council on Foreign Relations (2016)
  7. 7.Supreme Court quashes City traders' fraud convictions, Criminal Cases Review Commission (2025)
  8. 8.Tom Hayes: Court overturns ex-Citi trader criminal conviction for interest rate rigging, CNN Business (2025)
  9. 9.Announcements on the end of LIBOR, Financial Conduct Authority (2021)
  10. 10.The US dollar LIBOR panel has now ceased, Financial Conduct Authority (2023)

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Written by The Conspiratory Editors · Published July 18, 2026. The Conspiratory lays out the claim, the case on every side, and the sources, so you can weigh it yourself. Spotted a stronger source? Corrections are welcome.